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Brad Davidson preview Saturday July 4

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW SATURDAY JULY 4 May 30 2020

***Keener Newcastle today due to heavy track at Randwick. Check social media throughout the day as could be a few late bets***

 

Newcastle

Best bet

Race 4 no.8 Strawb $1.65 (rated $1.60, confidence 7/10)

Has had issues out of the barriers but jumped well last start and bolted in, running outstanding time. Even if she misses the jump here, providing she doesn’t miss it by far and gets room in the straight, she should be very hard to beat here. Looks a Saturday Sydney class mare.

Next best

Race 3 no.3 Royal Banquet $2.20 and no.4 Toomai $10 to win

Stablemate to Strawb and bolted in first-up at Scone in good time. The step up to 1300m should suit and he should be hard to beat here. Looks progressive. I want to have something small on Toomai as well and I just think she has been crying out for a dry track. Beat Collete and Fulmina last time in and that form bodes well for this. Blinkers on here and I want to make her a winner.

 

Randwick Best bet:

Race 7 no.1 Outback Diva $3.60 (no play for strategies as rated $3.70 and firmed this morning, confidence 7/10)

Hasn’t ticked the Randwick wet track box yet and would have preferred the rain to stay away this morning but the step up to 1400m should suit and she is the mare on the up here. Good win last start over 1200m and she is already a winner at 1400m in the past. She should be able to park a bit closer as well.

Best value

Race 6 no.11 Continuation $11- Would have preferred rain to stay away and still hasn't ticked that 2400m box but is flying this prep and looks overs.

Race 2 no.16 Skara Brae- runs well but $17-$10 since Thursday and too short right now. May get back out. $12 plus would be acceptable to back.

 

Randwick 4m history

4/03/2017         Rwick    4m        H10       Outside fence clear best but anywhere near o/side OK

8/04/2017         Rwick    4m        H8         If anything run-on bias. Not many leaders

4/08/2018         Rwick    4m        G3         First two lanes an advantage but not everything- not easy to make a heap of ground as a general rule

24/08/2019       Rwick    4m        G4         Fair trak. 6/9 winners fene in run but ould win anywhere

11/04/2020       Rwick    4m        H8         Down the middle and swooping adv here- not impo to win closer but adv wide run on

Assessment: Bit of a mix but overall when wet in this rail position suiting middle and run on types.

 

Normal strategy

Randwick

Race 6 no.11 Continuation 6 unit win at $11

10 unit Randwick main quaddie (starts r6, 11.11%): 1st leg: 11,3,6,15,12.. 2nd leg: 1,9,5. 3rd leg: 3,4,2. 4th leg: 3,10.

Newcastle

Race 3 no.3 Royal Banquet 30 unit win at $2.20

Race 3 no.4 Toomai 5 unit win at $10

Race 4 no.8 Strawb 40 unit win at $1.65

 

Long game strategy

Randwick

Race 6 no.11 Continuation 0.2 unit win at $11

 

Newcastle

Race 3 no.3 Royal Banquet 1 unit win at $2.20

Race 3 no.4 Toomai 0.2 unit win at $10

Race 4 no.8 Strawb 1.25 unit win at $1.65

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Think! About your choices

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Travest and he absolutely bolted in fresh. He is unbeaten in two starts and looks talented. He just needs to do it away from his home track now. Edison should be fit now and he did win third up last prep in this grade. He looks the main danger along with Papal Warrior who probably wasn’t on the best part of the track last start and gets a 2.5kg swing on Travest for a 2.2 length margin.

Advice: Travest to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Faretti should roll to the front with the blinkers on with Brazen Gem and Bazooka rolling forward as well. Travest is likely to get a fair way back.

Likely market trend: Travest will be popular here.

Selections: 2-1-7-5

2.Travest- Bolted in fresh- Unbeten but both wins at home and while he has speed, Berry may go back on this. Stays 1300m?

1.Edison- Bjorn Baker gave a good chance last week- Fit now third up and has won third up last prep in this grade at 1400m. Handy un a race with not a logt of speed

7.Papal Warrior- Prob nit best part track LS at WF ad does get 2.5kg swin on Travest. Should be handy enough from gate.

5.Faretti- Overrated throughout his career but blinkers 1st time and positive map here.

Race 2

Overview: Open Highway but I want to case for a couple at odds. The main one is Skara Brae and I’ve been taken by her last two wins. She overcame a wide run to score at Wellington and she didn’t beat much at Scone the other day but gee she was very strong late and I can see a similar thing happening here. Bad Boy For Love has had no luck whatsoever this campaign and I reckon he has been the most luckless horse racing in Sydney in the past couple of months. He has great claims again but I just wish it was 1200m and not 1000m. Foxie La Belle ran a bottler first-up last prep and then had a luckless campaign after that. She will run on at odds, while Golden Avenger must be respected.

Advice: Skara Brae was the value at $17. Well enough found at $10 now but could drift a touch.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Strong speed expected here with I’m On Break, Tallis, Lord Tony and potentially others rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Skara Brae has already been backed. Market support for a few here.

Selections: 16-9-13-5

16.Skara Brae- Sat wide and too good at Wellington two back and then ridden cold and went crunch last start in easily beast L600,400 an 200 of day.

9.Bad Boy For Love- Most luckless horse in Sydney! Runs well all the time and should have won last start, two back had to go right back wide gate, three back ran into traffic jams in str and four back went back, forward and posted. 1000m not ideal but speed on

13.Foxie La Belle- Like her as a horse- Firs tup last prep was super, then solid in benchmark grade, then WNC on very strong speed and held on for third at Kembla and then had no luck in Hway at Randwick.

5. Chazelles- Trialled well, has a nice record and must be respected from Matt Dunn yard.

Race 3

Overview: I like the fact Godolphin put Tailleur away after her debut win and she bolted in there in a race that has produced five winners since. She has trialled well leading in and looks the horse to beat albeit is short enough in betting. I like Best Stone as a horse and she is really capable here on her home track. Her form lines last prep were outstanding for a race like this. Hulk gets the blinkers on and he was slow to recover last start. I like the drop back in trip for him with that gear change because it should be run at a tempo to get him to relax.

Advice: Tailleur the horse to beat but at current prices I’ll lean the way of Best Stone.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Mr Polar, De Grawin, Switched and Tallieur all roll forward and speed should be genuine at least.

Likely market trend: Expecting Tallieur to drift a touch from $2.40.

Selections: 5-10-4-2

5.Best Stone- like this fully- Held back seems to be dodging wet tracks the concern bit cann drift back here and come with a big run. Love her form around some good horses last prep.

10.Tailleur Bolted in fresh in solid rating maiden (similar overall time to Acumen ond ay). 5 winner sout of that race. Two soft trials. Out of Commands mare- Related to Raiment who won multiple times wet.

4.Hulk- Blikers again- Like that and back in trip in fast run race. He can be there. Slow to recov last start but won 1100m fresh and run behind Mo’s Crown was solid.

2.Switched- Honest on pacer. Back to 1100m not sure ideal this stage of prep but gat 1 and Clark and he sum up tempo well. Wanting it drier for her.

Race 4

Overview: Mr Dependable should be close to peak now third up and he does have his foot on the till. I wish it was a bit drier for him but my main niggle is the fact I don’t think he will control the race here and Dylan’s Romance will want the front and will roll on. He is still the one to beat but I hope they don’t get caught in a speed duel early. Matowi beat home Mr Dependable last prep at 1800m and he will be rattling home here along with High Opinion who is at his best when he can get a fast tempo.

Advice: Mr Dependable on top but je didn’t want the rain this morning!

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Dylan’s Romance, Toryjoy and Mr Dependable look the three on speed runners. Dylan’s Romance should roll along and I’m assuming Mr Dependable will take the sit instead of getting into a speed battle.

Likely market trend: Expecting Mr Dependable to drift from $2.40.

Selections: 7-4-6-3

7.Mr Dependable- Third up ready now- Two good runs- Can’t dictate but love the way he is going. Ready now.

4.Matowi- Good from back last start but was a race where set up to get home. Beat home MD at 1800m Rwick last prep when 2nd to Dabiyr. MD went way too hard that day tho. JMAC sticks and 3 from 8 at this track,

6.High Opinion- Struggled at 2400m last start but goo winner her two back 2000m. Likes it wet even know record shows a bit more inconclusive. 1800m, sustained closer and good speed here with DR

3. Articus next best

Race 5

Overview: A race with several chances and the event I’m least confident on throughout the program. I’ll forgive Lashes one bad run and lean her way. She was good behind Adelong before that and gets the booking of James McDonald here. Spaceboy bolted in last start albeit the fact he was on the fence which accounted for six of the seven winners on the day at Wyong. Broken Arrows, Superium and Longbottom are all capable, while Fanciful Dream returned some decent figures in her win at Port Macquarie last start and has a chance at odds.

Advice: Leaning to Lashes but tough race.

Confidence: 3/10

Speed map: Spaceboy should roll forward and lead with Invincible Kiss and Worldly Pleasure the two that are prominent as well. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: Lashes should get out from $2.70.

Selections: 3-5-2-7

3.Lashes- Disapp LS but wide on speed and ran on well fresh prior to that when beating all bar Adelong. Runs on late. JMAC on.

5.Spaceboy- 1000m should give a sight. Bolted in at Wyong last start but fence in str and hat was clear advantage. Going well all the same. Gets a bad rap with some.

2.Superium- Going ok and wants it drier- not sure how this will play- don’t like back to 1000m personally?

7. Fanciful Dream- Big win LS at PM and ran super time there. Big jump but worth a throw at the stumps.

Race 6

Overview: Elaborate has been really consistent of late and he gets another chance to notch a deserved Saturday city win. He was no match for Mount Popa last start but beat the rest. Continuation has had nothing go right this preparation at all and he looks a good roughie here. He hasn’t run out the 2400m yet but looks a different horse this prep. Tigre Royale and Shangani Patrol on the next line.

Advice: Continuation a decent roughie here. No knock on Elaborate.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Shangani Patrol, Tigre Royale and True Marvel should all roll forward. Speed looks OK despite Terwilliker coming out.

Likely market trend: Elaborate should have plenty of support. Expecting support for a few at odds.

Selections: 11-3-6-15

11.Continuation- Like the way he is going. First up no luck, second up not fence in run and third uo QL200. Hasn’t run out 2400m before but another prep under his belt, light weight, think he is a chance.

3.Elaborate- Looks the horse to beat. Run well at last two starts finding one better- Beat all bar Mount Popa ls. Tends to like a good tempi and should get one here.

6.Tigre Royale- Won his past two at this distance at Geelong. More depth here and figures just OK but 5 winners out of the race two back so a bit of depth to form.

15. True Marvel- Flying last couple and up to this.

Other chance:

12.Shangani Patrol- Tough stayer up on speed. Got the chocolates last start and no reason can[‘t run well again albeit more depth here.

 

Race 7

Overview: Pretty keen on Outback Diva here and she looks the horse on the up. Both her runs this prep have been good and I think she can park a touch closer in the run here up to 1400m. She is already a winner at this distance as well. Threeood was a bit disappointing last start but James McDonald was suspended for three weeks for his ride on the mare and her form prior was strong. Miss Redoble is knocking on the door and looks next best.

Advice: Outback Diva to win.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Spanish Dream and Vitesse look the two to roll forward but speed doesn’t look overly strong here. I’m hoping Outback Diva can be closer from the draw.

Likely market trend: Expecting Outback Diva to firm a touch off $4 here.

Selections: 1-9-5-3

1.Outback Diva- Wins in another stride fresh and then too good second up 1200m. SP $10 there but this a naturally progression- Stable flying. Claim, drawn well to grt to middle. 1400M winner

9.Threeood- Poor ride but still a bhit avg all same last start. Back to 1200m against there. 1400m more like it

5.Miss Redoble- Not far off Threeood last couple of times they’ve met.  Nash on a big plus.

3.Jay Jay D’Ar- Sat closer LS and back on inside pad which was best part but just too wet. Wants it dryer than it has been. Beat threeood dry track earlier this prep. JMAC on. Draws to save ground agan. 1400m slight niggle?

Race 8

Overview: Handspun was outstanding first up and then didn’t have a lot of luck second up. She looks ready to strike third up if she gets through the wet conditions at Randwick (her best form has been at Rosehill?). Cristal Breeze was a strong winner first-up at Canterbury but they went hard and set it up for him. He has upside all the same. Rari will be fitter second up and has won at this track and distance, while Charretera rarely runs a bad race and is a must for first four players.

Advice: Handspun on top but didn’t want the rain this morning.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map:  Bergen, Noble Joey, Tahsin and Rari roll forward. Speed looks genuine enough here.

Likely market trend: Handspun, Rari and Cristal Breeze are all likely to have admirers here.

Selections: 3-4-2-7

3.Handspun-  First up was terrific just ran out of time- Second uo held up, held up and closed late. Shd have gone close. Draws to sit touch closer, gets through wet and looks horse to beat

4.Cristal Breeze- Good first up win at Canterbury0 Fence in run sl adv + went hard and small field but nice effort. Extra 100m helps

2.Rari- Looked to be dropping out but stuck on fresh, Fitter, Berry off to ride Handspun? Gets Nash on. Won this track.dist should get through condi- Second to Rubisaki heavy.

7. Cuban Royale- next best.

Race 9

Overview: Agassi brokethrough for a deserved win last start and he ticks a lot of boxes. He puts himself on speed, handles wet ground at Randwick and rarely runs a bad race. Bigboyroy looked to be bolting on the turn last start but didn’t ping when clear. He has his foot on the till though. Adana for the multiples.

Advice: Agassi to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Agassi and Oakfield Captain should roll forward. Speed just looks average.

Likely market trend: Agassi and Bigboyroy the two I expect to be popular with punters.

Selections: 3-10-12-8

3.Agassi-Got the right form- Had been struggling to win but brokethrough LS with good win over Mr Dependable- Puts himself on speed, handles wet. Up 2kg but beat Orcein comfortably lat start and that horse easily beaten New Arrangement since.

10.Bigboyroy- No luck Canterbury two back and then held up, looked to be bolting and didn’t pin when clear but back on inside best part thay day and he was making run out wider.My concern is race rate poorly pm dau

12. Adana- Third pick after scratchings. Likes it wet and should run well.

8. Travancore next best

 

 

 



Brad Davidson preview Saturday July 4 - Brad Davidson preview Saturday July 4


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