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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Feb 22

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL FEB 22 Nov 30 2019

Best bet

Newcastle Race 8 no.8 Luna Mia $2.70 (rated $2.40, confidence 7/10)

Classy mare returning for the Paul Messara yard- Had a really good prep last time in before having no luck at all in the Kosciousko before a break. Has looked good at the trials in preparation for her return.

Rosehill

Short but sweet

Race 3 no.6 Cellsabeel $1.60 (rated $1.50, confidence 8/10)

Cellsabeel picks herself here and her two runs to date have been super. She had the flashing light on when fourth in the Golden Gift and then her first-up win this prep was arguably the two-year-old performance of the season and she is the deserved Golden Slipper favourite at this stage. No doubt peaking later on but should be too strong again.

Two horse play

Race 5 no.6 Black Magnum $2.90 and 8. River Bird $8

Black Magnum won well with the big weight fresh and he drops a stack in weight here. He relishes wet tracks and should be hard to hold out late. River Bird was disappointing second up but she did a similar thing last prep and getting back onto wet ground will suit.

Two horse play

Race 6 no.2 Red Cardinal (playing tote) and no.4 Eastender $16 and $4.40

Red Cardinal won this race last year on a soft 7 and it sets up well for him again despite the big weight. Eastender’s run was much better than it looked first up and he found the line well off a slow tempo. He is a knockout hope here and has a great record on wet ground.

Normal strategy (180 units)

Rosehill

Race 3 no.6 Cellsabeel 45 unit win at $1.60

Race 5 no.6 Black Magnum 20 unit win at $2.90

Race 5 no.8 River Bird 15 unit win at $8

Race 6 no.2 Red Cardinal 10 unit win tote

Race 6 no.4 Eastender 5 unit win at $16 and 10 unit win at $4.40

Race 7 no.9 The Holy One 10 unit place at $6

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 62.5%): 1st leg: 1,5. 2nd leg: 6. 3rd leg: 2,1,4,3. 4th leg: 6,8.

10 unit quaddie: (Starts r6, 10.41%) : 1st leg: 2,8,4,6. 2nd leg: 2,5,1,9. 3rd leg: 2,3,8. 4th leg: 5,13.

Newcastle

Race 8 no.8 Luna Mia 45 unit win at $2.70

Results: -1439.9 units (-15% POT, 9611 units outlayed)

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Long game strategy (5.35 units)

Rosehill

Race 3 no.6 Cellsabeel 1.5 unit win at $1.60

Race 5 no.6 Black Magnum 0.75 unit win at $2.90

Race 5 no.8 River Bird 0.5 unit win at $8

Race 6 no.2 Red Cardinal 0.3 unit win tote

Race 6 no.4 Eastender 0.2 unit win at $16 and 0.3 unit win at $4.40

Race 7 no.9 The Holy One 0.3 unit place at $6

Newcastle

Race 8 no.8 Luna Mia 1.5 unit win at $2.70

Results: -24.60 units (-17.2% POT, 143.25 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rosehill 6m rail history:

8/12/2018         Rosehill 6m        G4         No bias. Fair track!                              

23/02/2019       Rosehill 6m        S7          Not easy to make up a heap of ground. First fer lanes inferior and wider the better                                        

30/03/2019       Rosehill 6m        H9         First 3-4 races on speed and close to fence. Got wider as day went on but didn't want to be far off them                                 

15/06/2019       Rosehill 6m        S5          ok first couple and then got to middle of track here                                  

27/07/2019       Rosehill 6m        G4         Pretty fair track, don't think hard fence was the best but could win there                                      

14/09/2019       Rosehill 6m        G4         Fence in run key adv + first 2-3 lanes in str good adv                             

20/11/2019       Rosehill 6m        G4         Bit on pace early but more best horses. Fair track                                

11/12/2019       Rose      6M        G4 (prob S5)      Fence in run big advantage on day, could make ground                           

Assessment: Can play a touch on pace and sometimes fence in run too (more prominent when dry though). Want to settle first half and getting wider as day goes on.

Wind: Gentle winds.

Race 1

Overview: Open race and plenty of these have claims. Splintex didn’t handle the wet ground in Melbourne last start so the soft conditions will be a concern again. Her form prior to last start was strong for a race like this though. Willowheart is unbeaten in two runs and she will take good improvement from the first-up win this time in. Acumen was very impressive on debut and then a bit disappointing second up despite winning. Screenager also has claims.

Advice: Open race. Not much between a few of them.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Acumen, Willowheart and Splintex should all be up there.

Selections: 1-2-6-8

1.Splintex ($4.50): Didn’t handle wet ground in Melbourne last start so is of some concern again? Produced good splits and overall time when scoring two back.

2.Acumen ($3)- Very good win fresh then I was disappointed in his latest win. Time was fair and margin small. Can he get back to debut win?

6.Willowheart  ($6)- 2/2- nice return win on wet ground- Ran time on debut last prep and has upside.

8.Screenager ($8.50): Trialled well leading in- Won two straight last prep and then 4th in Listed race- Looks to have come back well.

Other runners:

3. Deference ($7.3), 4. Camp Rifle ($52.3).

Race 2

Overview: Hard to go past Mr Wong and he was a strong winner fresh and has trialled well since. The step up in trip should be Ok. Two Big Fari is progressing well and he is a horse that should relish the extra distance. He bumped into a nice horse last start. Boom Gate (blinkers on) has claims as well.

Advice: Mr Wong to win.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Tale Of The Kraut looks the leader with Ameares coming across- Speed looks moderate on paper but they normally roll in these Highways.

Selections: 1-5-10-15

1.Mr Wong ($3.10): Nice ride but dominant win first-up. Now to 1400m off a nie trial in between- horse to beat.

5.Two Big Fari ($5.30):- Too good first-up then chased a smart one LS- Racing well and gets another chance.

10.Boom Gate ($11.50):- Blinkers 1st time- Trialled well behind Mr Wong recently- Always shown promise.

15- Southern Appeal ($9.50): Found the line well first up to just miss- This is a fair bit harder though.

Other runners:

2. Zardoro ($14.4), 4. Electrified ($19.2), 6. A lot To Hoffa ($23.4), 7. Schappose ($38.9), 8. Tale Of The Kraut ($19.2), 11. Ameares ($23.4), 16. Apache Belle ($233.5).

Race 3: Silver Slipper Stakes (1100m)

Overview: Cellsabeel picks herself here and her two runs to date have been super. She had the flashing light on when fourth in the Golden Gift and then her first-up win this prep was arguably the two-year-old performance of the season and she is the deserved Golden Slipper favourite at this stage. Blaze A Trail did beat home Cellsabeel in his only run to date last prep and that Golden Gift form looks strong. North Pacific has trialled well and looks next best.

Advice: Cellsabeel to win.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Farnan, Blaze A Trail and Every Rose should be prominent. Cellsabeel shouldn’t be too far away settling down.

Selections: 6-3-4-2

6.Cellsabeel ($1.50): Picks herself- Dominant win LS in strong figures- Wet track no issue and clear top pick.

3.Blaze A Trail ($9.20): Beat Cellsabeel at his only run in Golden Gift- Trials have been solid.

4. North Pacific ($14) Hit the line well in a recent trial- From astute yard- Betting?

2.Global Quest ($17.50):- OK first up and will be better for that- Should be running on.

Other runners:

1. Farnan ($28.4), 5. Every Rose ($40.5), 7. Sunborn ($283.5), 8. Fayerra ($141.7).

Race 4: Millie Fox Stakes (1300m)

Overview: Savatiano doesn’t want anymore rain but she looks top pick here on the way she finished last preparation. She has a strong fresh record and finished third in this race last year first-up off a similar set up. White Moss won this race last year and she did enough fresh behind Standout. Unlike last year though, Savatiano won’t be giving her a big start in this race this year. Invincible Gem and Miss Fabulass are both capable as well but happy to be with Savatiano on a soft 7 or better.

Advice: Savatiano to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Irithea, Savatiano and White Moss look most prominent. Speed looks average.

Selections: 2-1-4-3

2.Savatiano ($2.60): Nice trial leading in, strong fresh record, third in this race last year when getting a long way back but should be closer Doesn’t want any more rain.

1.White Moss ($5.30): Won this race last year- Did enough fresh and improves with racing. The danger.

4.Miss Fabulass ($7.50): Slowly improving- Has been a work in progress but has a nice turn of speed and will be strong late.

3.Invincible Gem ($6.20): Hard to catch but always capable. Freshened since second in Villiers.Has a nice fresh record.

Other runners:

5. Irithea ($10.7), 6. Delectation Girl ($37.9),

Race 5

Overview: Nice little race. Black Magnum won well with the big weight fresh and he drops a stack in weight here. He relishes wet tracks and should be hard to hold out late. River Bird was disappointing second up but she did a similar thing last prep and getting back onto wet ground will suit. Inanup is flying and the only concern is the wide draw and the drop back to 1100m. I’m guessing she will give them a start here. Wagner won well first up last prep and also has claims.

Advice: Black Magnum the horse to beat and River Bird the value.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Junglized and Grey Shadow look most prominent. Speed looks moderate.

Selections: 6-8-5-1

6.Black Magnum ($2.60):- HTB and has been heavily backed. Drops a stack in weight, relishes wet ground and has a nice turn of speed.

8.River Bird ($6.90): Super fresh and then maybe too close LS but too bad to be true. Back on preferred wet ground,.

5.Inanup ($7.40): Flying this prep- back to 1100m and wide gate the knocks but racing too well to leave out.

1. Greyworm ($8.6): Next best. Don’t like map or distance first up? But class.

Other runners:

2. Spending To Win ($13.1), 4. Grey Shadow ($10.5), 7. Junglized ($26.5).

Race 6

Overview: Etana has been heavily supported in early markets and she did work very well alongside Golden Slipper favourite Cellsabeel in between races in Sydney recently. She is the horse to beat off the dominant Gold Coast win last start. I don’t mind a couple at odds here in Red Cardinal and Eastender. Red Cardinal won this race last year on a soft 7 and it sets up well for him again despite the big weight. Eastender’s run was much better than it looked first up and he found the line well off a slow tempo. He is a knockout hope here. Primitivo drops back in trip and also has strong claims.

Advice: Etana the horse to beat but Red Cardinal and Eastender have chances at odds.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Speed looks genuine here with Fun Fact rolling and Toryjoy and Mushaireb keeping him honest. Should be a genuine test.

Selections: 2-8-4-6

2. Red Cardinal ($8.80): Don’t mind him here- Won this race last year fresh and there looks to be strong speed here. Gets back with a big weight but can launch late.

8. Etana ($4.50):-Strong win on the GC last start and figures were solid. That looked a peak although has worked extremely well with stablemate Cellsabeel since?

4. Eastender ($13.90): Thought he did enough fresh in a real sit and sprint and this looks winnable. Extra trip suits and wet track is no issue

6.Primitivo ($6.50): Did a big job to score at GC last start when up sharply in trip. Is a stayer with a turn of foot and while back in trip here, has to be right there.

Other runners:

1. Mustajeer ($12), 3. Wu Gok ($21.2), 5. Sweet Thomas ($57.4), 7. Le Jude ($21.2), 9. Fun Fact ($7.1), 10. Toryjoy ($28.3), 11. Mushaireb ($15.2).

Race 7

Overview: Microphone maps to get a really nice run on speed here and he might just lead these if Spend runs in Melbourne as you would expect. He was a good winner over this trip last start and should be hard to catch here. Castelvecchio is a beauty but there’s no denying that 1400m is short of his best. He did trial well leading in. Kubrick, Shadow Hero, Pancho and Brandenburg are all capable first-up as well if they have improved.

Advice: Microphone to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Looks a race devoid of speed- Expecting Microphone and The Holy One to both be prominent.

Selections: 2-5-1-9

2. Microphone ($3.30): Should roll forward and lead and could be hard to catch here. Has race fitness on his side and while I reckon there are better horses in the race, he sets up OK.

5.Kubrick ($6.80): Was supposed to run 1200m a few weeks back but didn’t. Gets through wet ground and has a decent turn of foot.

1.Castelvecchio ($6.40): Best horse in race and trialled well. It’s just a case of whether 1400m is a touch sharp for him. He found 1500m too sharp first-up last prep.

9. The Holy One ($19.40): Missed the jump fresh but hard not to like how he found the line. By Tavistock so should appreciate wet ground as his record suggests. Roughie.

Other runners:

3. Warning ($58.9), 4. Shadow Hero ($9.6), 6. Prince Fawaz ($58.9), 7. Pancho ($16.6), 8. Brandenburg ($16.6), 10. Reloaded ($19.4), 11. Fortress Command ($39.3),

Race 8

Overview: Cradle Mountain should get a soft lead here and he should be very hard to catch. He was back to his best last start and the drying track means he will be hard to beat again. Wolfe is on a Doncaster campaign I believe so he should be nice and sharp. Having said that, he is normally vulnerable fresh. Djukon brings great form lines around Ispolini (who has form around Cross Counter) but you would imagine this would be a bit short for him? Wren’s Day comes back as a gelding and has trialled well leading into his second prep in Australia.

Advice: Cradle Mountain to win.

Speed map: Cradle Mountain looks to get control but should set a decent tempo as he likes to roll.

Selections: 2-3-8-7

2-Cradle Mountain ($3)- Thought the track might have been a bit drier by now and that’s the concern along with the fact he can be a bit hard to catch. Does look to control this in front though and that[s when he is at his best.’

3. Wren’s Day ($8):- Gelded. Trialled well leading in. Just OK first Aussie prep but that Cracksman form line stands out here.

8. Ken’s Dream ($8)- Runner up in B84 at Caulfield LS and gets un light here. Could show up from inside draw.

7.Djukon ($10.30): 2 jump outs OK- Great form around Ispolini overseas- This could be a touch sharp though?

Other chances:

13.Ligulate ($12.80)- Needed the run fresh and can improve off that- Gets in nice and light here and could surprise.

Other runners:

1. Wolfe ($10.3), 4. Master Of Wine ($20.8), 6. Another Dollar ($20.8), 11. Aliferous ($17.1), 12. Nobu ($34.7).

Race 9

Overview: Positive Peace has been flying and the drop back in trip is the query I guess. This is much harder than what she has been facing but she has bolted in at her last two starts. Subpoenaed is a nice horse but she tends to go around short in betting. She will give them a big start here and stays at 1400m. Bottega next best but you’ve got about six on the next line with genuine claims.

Advice: Leaning to Positive Peace

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Oriental Runner, Agassi and Positive Peace look prominent. Speed should be strong.

Selections: 5-13-10-12

5.Positive Peace ($4): Flying this prep- Won her past two in dominant style- Has company up front and back in trip not ideal but runs well all the same.

13. Subpoanaed ($4): Nice former NZ filly who has quite an extravagant action. Gives them a start but watch for her late.

10. Bottega ($18.10):- Recent trial just fair but has good ability this horse- Blinkers backfired before a break but form prior was strong.

12. Nudge ($20.30): Classy mare who should be closing off late here and continue to improve over further.

Other runners:

2. Shock Alert ($41.3), 3. Laure Me In ($18.3), 4. Agassi ($18.3), 6. Napoleon Solo ($20.3), 7. Oriental Runner ($33), 8. Killer Instinct ($18.3), 9. Asiago ($23.2), 11. On The White Turf ($18.1), 14. Kaapfever ($164.9).



Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Feb 22 - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Feb 22


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