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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Jan 15

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW WARWICK FARM JAN 15 Nov 27 2019

Tamworth, Tuesday Feb 25

Best bets

Best each-way

Race 4 no.2 Chargement $7.50

I reckon this market is all wrong and I expect Pure Faith ($3) and Mbappe ($4.60) to drift as Chargement firms tomorrow. Chargement ran over the same track and distance as Mbappe last start and his overall time was 2-3L quicker than Mbappe's on day despite going much slower to the 600m. His last 600m was some 9L quicker than Mbappe's. Pure Faith won well last start but it was a very weak maiden which has produced 5 subs starters for 0 placings.

Next best each-way

Race 5 no.7 Sir Leo $9.50 and $3

Put a pen through the last run where he struggled on wet ground at a distance beyond his best. Beat Star Alibi (fav here) prior and on his merits too. Hoping they roll forward from the gate and should stick on strongly.

Roughie

Race 3 no.5 Encosta Glory $11 and $3.40

Thought she did enough first-up at Port Macquarie where she got a long way back but closed strongly the last 200m (2nd quickest last 200m of the race). Would have preferred more than only an extra 100m but she should be finding the line all the same.

Short but sweet for multi players

Race 8 no.1 Emperor's Star $1.65 

Picks herself- Won well Scone 1000m first up- This no harder- Should lead and be hard to catch again.

 

Normal strategy

Race 3 no.5 Encosta Glory 0.2 unit win at $11 and 0.3 unit place at $3.40

Race 4 no.2 Chargement 0.75 unit win at $7.50 and 0.75 unit place at $2.50

Race 5 no.7 Sir Leo 0.5 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $3

Results: -1645.9 units (-16.7%POT, 9861 units outlayed)

Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.Gamble Responsibly.

 

Long game strategy

Race 3 no.5 Encosta Glory 0.2 unit win at $11 and 0.3 unit place at $3.40

Race 4 no.2 Chargement 0.75 unit win at $7.50 and 0.75 unit place at $2.50

Race 5 no.7 Sir Leo 0.5 unit win at $9.50 and 0.75 unit place at $3

Results: -30.6 units (-20.3%POT, 150.6 units outlayed)

Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.Gamble Responsibly.



Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Jan 15 - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Jan 15


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