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The 'Davo' Directive with Brad Davidson- Warwick Farm 25-11-2020

Warwick Farm Wednesday

Best Bet

Race 4 No.8 Stoical $3 (rated $3.20, confidence 7/10)

Just under my rated price so no play for strategy players. Bolted in first up as a gelding at Kembla and ran good time in doing so as well. Should roll to the front here, finds James McDonald aboard and should be hard to run down. The danger Ballistic Lover has drawn awkwardly and doesn't look suited back to 1000m. 

 

Best Value

Race 2 No.4 Shaddy

The barrier means he might get back here which is not ideal but I think he is a promising horse and I'm prepared to forgive the last start flop where he overraced with the blinkers on. The shades come back off here and his form prior to last start was very good. Has a motor and should be charging home late. Nash on is another positive.

Other Value

Race 6 No.8 Major Time and small No.11 Texas Forever 

I would be a lot more confident if it was 1000m but he has been flying in two runs back and he won't know himself with just 54.5kg on the back after the claim. Maps well and just needs to hold on that last 100m. At the right price to have something on. I'll also make Texas Forever a small winner and he ticks a few boxes here- dry track, 1100m, home track and a great front running rider on. Recent form has been disappointing but his best is good enough. 

 

Normal Strategy

Warwick Farm

Race 2 No.4 Shaddy 9 unit win at $8.50

Race 6 No.8 Major Time 12 unit win at $6.50

Race 6 No.11 Texas Forever 6 unit win at $14

 

Long Game Strategy

 

Warwick Farm

Race 2 No.4 Shaddy 0.3 unit win at $8.50

Race 6 No.8 Major Time 0.4 unit win at $6.50

Race 6 No.11 Texas Forever 0.2 unit win at $14

 

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