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The 'Davo' Directive with Brad Davidson- Kembla Grange 21-11-2020

Sky Racing form expert BRAD DAVIDSON delivers his wagering strategy for racing enthuasists around the nation.

Kembla Grange Saturday

Best Bet

Race 5 No.2 Big Parade $2.40 (rated $2.30, confidence 7/10) Bet Here

The scratching of Rhythmic Pulse really helps Big Parade here and he should get a better run on speed as a result. At about his right price but does look the best of the favourites at Kembla today.

Best Value

Race 7 No.15 Bottega  Bet Here

Would have been very keen on him had he drawn a gate but he is big odds here all the same. I thought his first-up run was every bit as good as Purple Sector's, second up he was given a poor steer and should have won (gave Criaderas 7kg that day too) and then he was brave when not suited on a wet track in the Golden Eagle. He is the type of horse that needs cover so he will need a good ride but if he gets it, look out late. He won't know himself with 52kg on his back. 

Next Best Value

Race 2 No.6 All Over Magic and No.12 Roc De Kapher Bet Here

Very open Highway with a number of chances with these being two of them. I want to forgive All Over Magic on the wet track last start and if he reproduces his win at Port Macquarie two back on dry ground, then he is the horse they all have to beat here. That was a clear peak but he did have a couple of similar runs earlier in his career when with another stable and his trial leading into last run was outstanding as well. I also think Roc De Kapher is over the odds. Needs luck from the draw but his last two runs have been super. The latest was on a wet track but his strong win prior was on dry ground. He should be strong late here.

 

Normal Strategy

Race 1 No.7 Knight 12 unit win at $6

Race 2 No.6 All Over Magic 15 unit win at $11

Race 2 No.12 Roc De Kapher 6 unit win at $21

Race 5 No.2 Big Parade 15 unit win at $2.40

Race 7 No.15 Bottega 9 unit win at $16

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2) : 1st leg: 5,6,10,12. 2nd leg: 3,5,10,17. 3rd leg: 3,7. 4th leg: 1,2.

 

Long Game Strategy

Race 1 No.7 Knight 0.4 unit win at $6

Race 2 No.6 All Over Magic 0.5 unit win at $11

Race 2 No.12 Roc De Kapher 0.2 unit win at $21

Race 5 No.2 Big Parade 0.5 unit win at $2.40

Race 7 No.15 Bottega 0.3 unit win at $16

 

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Helpline 1800 858 858. 

Think! About your choices.

 

Main quaddie (starts r6): 1st leg: 12,2,9. 2nd leg: 15,11,14,13,7. 3rd leg: 12,4,3,1,9,10,11. 4th leg: 7,10,2.

Track History

30/11/2019       KG         True      G3         Could run on but fence or 1-2 lanes inferior here. Anywhere wider fine

16/05/2020       KG         True      S5         On pace and first few lanes

19/05/2020       KG         True     S6          Fair track

9/07/2020         KG         True      S5         Pretty fair here, if anything maybe hard fence slightly inferior. Could run on

18/07/2020       KG         True      H10       Race to the outside fence here.

12/09/2020       KG         True      G3         Pretty fair although most winners on speed

17/09/2020       KG         True      G3         If anything a bit up and in but could still make ground wide

Assessment: First few could be a bit on pace but expecting the track to open up late.

Wind: Gentle SE predicted. Gentle tail wind at start of 1000m races.

 

Race 1 Benchmark 72 (1500m)

Overview: Very even race to kick off the day. I like the way Knight improved when stepping up to the 1400m last start. He should own this race from the front and he is progressive enough to be hard to run down. Atlantic King had the race set up for him with a strong tempo up front second up but it was a nice win all the same. He is likely to give them a start here but should be strongest late. Air To Air had no luck last start and gets another opportunity here from the good draw, while Bigboyroy, Foxborough and Wairere Falls (may want further now?) are all capable.

Advice: Knight from Air To Air.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Knight looks to get a pretty soft lead here and the tempo looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Knight and Air To Air to be the best backed runners.

Selections: 7-6-3-2

Knight (7) – Progressive four-year-old for the Kim Waugh yard. Appreciated the step up to 1400m last start where he led and still clocked the quickest last 200m of the race to score. He beat High Supremacy there who has been Group 3 placed since. He should appreciate 1500m and Nash going on is a big tick.

Air To Air (6) – No luck last start when she should have finished closer. Draws to sit closer here and finds a very winnable race. Gets her chance.

Atlantic King (3) – Thought he was a bit short in early betting. Good win last start but it was set up for him (tempo four lengths above average early) and he gets back here in what looks a slowly run race.

Bigboyroy (2) – OK fresh over the 1400m and the extra 100m should help. James McDonald jumps aboard and he has each-way claims.

 

Race 2 TAB Highway (1600m)

Overview: Pretty strong Highway this with a host of chance at good odds as well. All Over Magic struggled on the wet track last start but the win prior on dry ground at Port Macquarie was simply superb. He is right in this at double figure odds. Roc De Kapher is flying for the Jade McDonald yard. The last effort was on a wet track but he did win impressively on a dry track prior to that and the figures from both of those runs suggests he is a good winning hope. I concede Activation has a chance but he seems short enough all the same here in a race with plenty of hopes. He has developed a habit of missing the jump which may work against him in the big field. She’s All In goes straight to the front and can give a big kick too.

Advice: All Over Magic and Roc De Kapher both represent value.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: She’s All In looks the leader with Obelos not far away. Roc De Khaper can roll forward too. Speed looks moderate which could work against the favourite, Activation, who can be slow away.

Likely market trend: Expect money for a few of these.

Selections: 6-12-10-5

All Over Magic (6) – Loved the win at Port Macquarie two back and the strength through the line was superb. He clocked the second best last 200m of the day there and his last 600m was some nine lengths quicker than the average for that class of race. The overall time was five lengths  quicker than the maiden on the day off a much slower tempo too. He showed good ability as a young horse. Didn’t handle the wet track last start.

Roc De Kapher (12)  – Gets in light but the apprentice is not in form and that's a concern (one win last 50 rides). Flying for the Jade McDonald yard though. The last effort was on a wet track but he did win impressively on a dry track prior to that and his figures stack up well.

She’s All In (10) – Tough on pacer who should lead these and give them something to catch. Solid over 1500m last start. Seems to be a better chaser sometimes but leads this on ear.

Activation (5)– Looks a nice enough horse and he has been smashing his rivals in much weaker grade. Last start was set up for though with a very strong tempo and the knock for mine is he misses the jump and in the big field he could be a long way off them.

 

Race 3 Benchmark 78 Handocap (2000m)

Overview: Tricky race to assess because Significance brings the best last start performance comfortably into this but seems to only produce a performance like that once every now and then. I really like the way Navy Cross is building this prep and fourth up now up to a 2000m looks the right type of race for him. Kirwan's Lane and Karmazone looms as terrific value chances, while Stockman is busting the win a race but all his best form has been on wet ground and that’s the query here.

Advice: Karmazone and Kirwan’s Lane both run well here in a very open race.

Confidence: 4/10

Speed map: Speed looks genuine here with Navy Cross, First Courrier, Significance and Tampering all up there early.

Likely betting trend: Expect Stockman to drift from $4.

Selections: 17-5-3-10

Karmazone (17) – Thought the last run was good from the back in a race that developed into a real dash home. The 2000m looks no issue and he meets Kirwan’s Lane 5kg better off for being beaten 1 ½ lengths by that horse last prep. I just think he will be strong late here at odds.

Kirwan’s Lane (5) – Forget the last run when he pulled up with track debris in his trachea. His two runs prior on dry ground were super and he looks a great knockout hope here.

Navy Cross (3) – Loved his last run and it said back me next start after he worked very hard on speed and kept kicking. He is ready now and the only knock is he has company on speed and it might set it up for one from the back.

Relucent (10) – Didn’t seem to be at home on the heavy last start but his form prior was strong. Looms as a big improver back onto dry ground here with Nash aboard.

 

Race 4 Benchmark 78 (1000m)

Overview: Looks a nice race for Destination on the freshen up and he was disappointing last start in the Brian Crowley but his form prior was super. The 1000m is short of his best but he should be strong late off the freshen. Hulk is airborne at present and should be flying home again, while Broken Arrows should have won this race on this day last year with any luck at all. Rough claims to Our Bellagio Miss.

Advice: Destination the horse to beat but Broken Arrows looms as a decent roughie.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed should be strong with Goldfinch, Mansa Musa, Iconic Star, Rare Episode and Our Bellagio Miss all handy.

Likely market trend: Expect Destination to be well supported here. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s specking for Broken Arrows as well.

Selections: 7-3-8-11

Destination (7) – Disappointing in the Brian Crowley but his form prior was super and he looks well placed here. Gets back off a decent tempo and should be strong late.

Broken Arrows (3) – Should have won this race last year when held up and a good thing beaten. Trialling well and he might just go one better here. More depth in this race all the same.

Hulk (8) – Having a great prep and he has put it altogether his last three or so starts. Flashed late to just miss behind Switched last start and should be charging late again.

Our Bellagio Miss (11) – Recent trial was fair at best but her figures stack up well last prep for her to run a cheeky race here with just 50kg on her back.

 

Race 5 Benchmark 78 (1200m)

Overview: Looks a nice race for Big Parade and he is a progressive horse for the Mark Newnham yard. He should roll across from the wide draw and give them something to catch here. His win at Canterbury last start was extremely impressive. Pandemic should see out the 1200m and he put the writing on the wall with a slashing third first-up over 1000m at Warwick Farm. He has won a trial since. Golly I’m Lucky is not hopeless at odds and he loves it here at Kembla Grange and should be flashing home. Mo’s Crown next best.

Advice: Big Parade to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Looks to be a bit of pressure here with Virgilio, Rythmic Pulse, Mo’s Crown and Big Parade all up there early.

Likely market trend: Expect Big Parade and Pandemic to be the two punters circle around.

Selections: 2-1-6-7

Big Parade (2) – Two nice trials since last start win at Canterbury where he bolted in and ran time with a big weight. Should roll across from the wide draw and be hard to beat here.

Pandemic (1) – Produced the quickest last 200m of the day first-up at Warwick Farm when he flashed home for third. Gets back again here but has won a trial since and just has to run out 1200m to go close.

Mo’s Crown (6) – Disappointing fresh but he is better than that and 1200m suits him better. Maps well. James McDonald jumps back aboard.

Golly I’m Lucky (7) – Likely to give some good horses a big start here but he is a place hope. Loves Kembla and can reel off a sectional.

 

Race 6 Benchmark 78 (1200m)

Overview: I'm with Stolen Jade here and I just think she has come back a much better horse this preparation. Her two wins this prep have both been super and she can go on with it here. Intrepidacious was very good first-up and she has been trialling well ever since that win. She should be in the finish again. Macroura was a bit disappointing first-up but gets a chance to atone on the firmer ground, while Turnstyle looks a place hope.

Advice: Stolen Jade to win, save on Intrepidacious.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks above average with Stolen Jade and Intrepidacious likely to cross from out wide. Turnstyle kicks up.

Likely market trend: I’m expecting Intrepidacious to start favourite with Macroura likely to drift. Stolen Jade should firm too.

Selections: 12-2-9-16

Stolen Jade (12) – Has always been a cracking type but I just think things have clicked this prep. Was a nice winner at Gosford fresh and then was very good at Canterbury when burning the candle at both ends and winning with something in reserve. Looks over the odds.

Intrepidacious (2) – Nice first-up win at Warwick Farm and she has been ticking over well ever since at the trials. Can she cross these? She will have to work is she does but she goes close on her preferred dry track regardless.

Macroura (9) – I thought she was a bit disappointing first-up but it was a heavy track all the same. Maps well but needs to see out 1200m still and just seems a bit short in betting for mine.

Turnstyle (16) – Brave mare who maps well and should be thereabouts. I would be surprised if she won all the same.

 

Race 7 The Gong (1600m)

Overview: Good race this. Purple Sector is airborne this prep and I don’t think he handled racing the other direction at all at Flemington during Cup week but class got him home. He was brilliant over a mile at Randwick prior and the only concern is whether the mile is a bit sharp for him now? I think the best roughie by far here is Bottega. I don’t think he was suited on the wet track last start but his two runs prior were outstanding (just as good as Purple Sector fresh). He needs luck from the draw all the same. Dawn Passage can only run well and was wide in the Golden Eagle, while Archedemus will give them something to catch. Asiago the other hope.

Advice: Bottega on top at the odds (although he has firmed massively since we locked in $16 on Wednesday!).

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Archedemus rolls to the front from out wide and he should roll along at an even clip. Positive Peace and Olmedo won’t be far away with Dawn Passage.

Likely market trend: Support has already arrived for Bottega and Asiago during the week. Expect some specking for a few of these.

Selections: 15-11-14-13

Bottega (15) – Looms as a great roughie here if he can get some cover early. Can overdo it if he doesn’t get that cover and that’s the big query especially from the outside gate. But he is the forgotten runner here. He was just as good as Purple Sector fresh, a poor ride cost him victory second up (when he was giving Criaderas 7kg!) and then it was too wet for him in the Golden Eagle. Meets Dawn Passage 4.5kg better off from that race. Right in this!

Purple Sector (11) – Has been a different horse since being gelded. Was super fresh, dynamic second up when reeling off some outstanding splits and then tradesman-like at Flemington but I don’t think he was at home there. Back to the mile is the query fourth up.

Asiago (14) – Sets up well here off the eye catching run over 1300m off a slow tempo in The Hunter. The mile suits, light weight, soft draw and she has form at Kembla. Runs well.

Archedemus (13) – Rolls to the front and can give them something to catch now he is at peak fitness. Last start figures read well and should give cheek. Looks overs.

Other chance:

Dawn Passage (7) – Three wide no cover and it was an outstanding effort to run third in the Golden Eagle. Could well be looking for the mile now and maps well. Short enough in betting though.

 

Race 8 Benchmark 88 (1600m)

Overview: Very open race this. Betcha Flying is likely to be back last but she could start over the odds here. She pulled up slow to recover on the wet track last start and she had excuses prior to that when she was ridden upside down. She probably should have won three starts back as well. Berdibek was a strong winner fresh and the extra trip should suit him. There is more depth here though and he does have the big weight again. Vegas Jewel might be looking for further but gets in well with the claim, while Matowi can improve out of sight and the races just haven’t been run to suit him at his last two starts.

Advice: Tough race. Betcha Flying on top if they’re able to make ground from the back.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Ulusaba runs to the front with Radipole, Soldier Of Love and Spencer all handy. Speeds looks even to moderate.

Likely market trend: I think track pattern will be key here as to who the punters back but I'll be surprised if Berdibeck doesn’t drift from $3.80. He looks too short here.

Selections: 12-4-3-1

Betcha Flying (12) – Slow to recover last start forgive. Ridden upside down two starts back forgive and then prior to that was luckless at Canterbury in a good race. I wish she drew a gate here and the map is the obvious query in a race with not much speed.

Matowi (4)– Forget his last two runs where they just haven’t been run to suit him. Closes off strongly here if he gets more speed (only has a 300m sprint and then peaks). James McDonald going aboard is a big jockey upgrade.

Soldier Of Love (3) - Just OK fresh but drier suits and maps well on speed here.

Berdibeck (1) – Good first-up win in the Greys’ race at Flemington. The extra trip suits and he just hs to give weight to some handy enough types here. Gate one isn’t ideal for him either.

Other chances to 9. Vegas Jewel, 10. Radipole, 11. Ulusaba and 8. Elaborate.

 

Race 9 Benchmark 78 (1400m)

Overview: Even race to finish the day. Night Of Power has been gelded and just might have not appreciated those wet tracks last prep. I’ll lean his way without confidence in the last. Greek Hero won first-up last prep at this track and he did sit wide that day. He has trialled well enough to be competitive first-up. Rule The World is one of the hardest runners of the day to line up. His old form would make him hard to beat but he was very disappointing last prep. Monegal also has claims.

Advice: Leaning to Night Of Power at the odds.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Peyton Place and Rule The World both roll forward and the speed should be strong in the last.

Likely market trend: Expect support for a few runners in the last.

Selections: 7-10-2-9

Night Of Power (7) – Heavily spruiked last prep but I just think he was bogged down on the wet tracks. Comes back as a gelding and has trialled well leading in.

Greek Hero (10) – Progressive type for the Freedman yard. Won well first-up last prep in a much weaker race and then was solid at two runs in town. Given a break after that and has trialled well leading in.

Rule The World (2) – Old form is super for this with a win over Grand Piano and Betcha Flying early in his career. Didn’t come back last prep. Trialled better this time in, winning latest heat at Randwick. Horse to beat if he is back to his best. IF being the query of course.

Monegal (9) – Always capable of running a cheeky race fresh. Won first-up last prep at 1300m and the extra 100m should be OK. Trialled well enough leading in.

Brad Davidson is a form analyst for Sky Racing who features on the Big Sports Breakfast, Form Line Extra and Punter's Intelligence (Tuesday night at 7pm) on Sky Thoroughbred Central (ch528).

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